How intelligent will AI get?

Will AI ever reach human levels of intelligence? Opinions vary, but one thing is certain: AI is far from easy.

A survey in 2013 by Vincent C. Müller and Nick Bostrom asked hundreds of scientists when they believe machines will achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI), meaning human-level intelligence. The median years for 10, 50, and 90 percent probability of reaching AGI were 2022, 2040, and 2075, respectively. But, there are still many challenges to reaching human-level intelligence.

Current limits to achieving AGI

The first is domain limitation. Today’s artificial intelligence primarily applies a mathematical approach that can solve a finite set of statements for a finite set of terms described under a finite set of rules. Marvin Minsky, widely regarded as the father of AI, dismissed deep learning as a fad that wasn’t a good model of intelligence because it mostly models bottom-up perception. Quite often, the potential scenarios and number of parameters are infinite, and the only way to get around this are to limit how the AI can be applied.

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